Compared to the primary stock markets in the world, JCI was one of the losers. Argentina’s Merval is currently the most profitable stock market in the world. However, Chile’s market was the worst and shrunk by 9,8% year-on-year.
Compared to Asian markets, JCI was the worst. Nikkei increased by 66,7% by last year. Nikkei’s growth in this year was supported by Yen weakening against US Dollar. Since Yen fell at the level of 101, it boosted export manufacturers and electrical stocks in Japan. Despite threats of banking liquidity and slowing down of manufacture in China, Shanghai and Hang Seng still increased over 8%.
Meanwhile, Wall Street kept increasing despite government shutdown and uncertainty of the Fed’s tapering. Moreover, S&P and Nasdaq booked new records and Dow hit new record 10 times in this month. US economic data showed positive signs and companies outperformed, these have beaten the Fed tapering and government shut down issue, drive Wall Street.
Despite the shadowing Greece’s debt failure, Euro stock was still increased this year by 21,1%. In average, Euro stock market was increased 18,1%. Russia was the lowest and just increased by 2%. Euro’s manufacturers industries showed recovery reaching 51,5 point. If it is more than 50 showed accelerate and if below showed slowdown.
Then, why JCI unlikely can perform as well as others? One is the uncertainty of the Fed’s tapering.
However, the Indonesia’s macro economic is also under pressure. So, it has been expected when JCI shrank since second quarter of this year and going back to the level of the beginning of this year.
Early this year, JCI was moving in line with global market, forced by the Fed buying back bonds and treasury notes amounting to US$ 85 billion per month. Consequently, US financial institutions obtain liquidity that are used for investments in emerging markets, including Indonesia.
Since then, JCI spiked to 5.251,30 points in the middle of May. During this time, JCI booked 24 record times. JCI’s highest record was not supported by strong fundamental of macroeconomic.
In the long run, market has made correction of the uncertainty of the Fed’s tapering. Foreign investors diminished their portfolio in JCI, thus, JCI was back at the same level as the beginning of the year. Even the record of capital outflow during second quarter was carrying out by US$ 40 billion.
The slowing down of economic was triggered by the increasing oil demand but the production was decreased. Finally, state budget’s subsidize burden was increased and force the government to increase subsidize-gasoline price. Since then, inflation was not restrained and reached 8.32% yoy in October 2013. The increasing of inflation is higher than economic growth as 5.62%.
On the other hand, Rupiah depreciated against US Dollar due the trade balance deficits by eight consecutive quarters. Until the third quarter of Indonesia's trade balance recorded a deficit of 3,8% of GDP. Government and corporate debt in US Dollar are also putting Rupiah in depreciation against US Dollar as the demand of Dollar increased during debt payment season in third quarter. Rupiah has decreased by 18% since last year against US Dollar.
BI as the controlling agent of monetary, increased the rate by 125 bps during this year to become 7,5%. Since then, inflation was restrained and risk-free investment increased so the foreign investor expects to re-invest in Indonesia. Otherwise with spiking rate, it will increase cost of capital as well.
However, after that particular policy, foreign investment during this year backed to positive again at US$ 2 billion. It could be expected in the final month of this year, foreign investors purchase rate will increase and drive local investors as well. Portfolio of foreign investor was 40% of all portfolios in JCI’s market.
No comments:
Post a Comment